The United States and Israel are reportedly developing plans for significant military operations against Iran following the U.S. midterm elections in November 2026, amidst an ongoing conflict that has already seen a naval blockade prevent $25 billion in Iranian oil exports. This potential escalation follows statements from President Donald Trump hinting at new military action and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu campaigning on a platform of Iranian regime change.

This prospect of intensified military engagement could reshape regional dynamics and further strain the global energy market, directly impacting American and international consumers. For Iran, an escalation threatens deeper economic pressure and potential targeting of critical infrastructure, while for the U.S. and Israel, it represents a calculated gamble with significant geopolitical stakes.

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President Donald Trump has suggested for several weeks that the United States will win the war "right after the election" or "maybe before the election". On October 23, 2026, Trump stated the U.S. "may do another little Epic Fury," referring to a military operation against Iran. Trump also hinted at potential intervention in Cuba after the Iran conflict, saying, "we're going to send Marco Rubio in to finish up the deal". Marco Rubio currently serves as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor.

On October 22, 2026, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that a 100-day naval blockade on Iran had prevented the export of at least $25 billion worth of crude oil. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is campaigning for the October 27 election with a platform explicitly calling for regime change in Iran. Speaking on October 20, Netanyahu connected this objective to Israel's campaign against Hezbollah, stating, "Finishing the job means bringing down the terrorist regime in Iran". U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made an unannounced visit to Israel last week, meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu days before the Israeli election.

The U.S. State Department is reducing staff at its embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates as of October 24, 2026. This decision followed an intelligence memorandum sent on October 23 by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The memo indicated a "substantial increase" in Iranian efforts to target U.S. personnel overseas, with "lethal plots against US citizens" reaching advanced stages in the Middle East and other countries.

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