President Donald Trump's approval rating has plummeted to 31% in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, with other surveys showing figures as low as 34% and 36%, just weeks before the November midterm elections. This decline coincides with Democrats holding a significant lead of 11 to 12 percentage points over Republicans among likely voters for control of Congress.

These polling numbers indicate widespread voter dissatisfaction with the current administration and signal a potentially challenging election for the Republican party. Democrats are now optimistic about securing significant gains and possibly controlling both chambers of Congress.

What the records show

Recent polls reveal President Trump's approval rating at 31% according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey. Other polls show his approval at 34%, with 62% disapproval, marking his worst month in their data. A New York Times/Siena College poll recorded his approval at 36%, the lowest in their survey. Voters express frustration over his handling of the US economy, the cost of living, and the ongoing war with Iran. Only 17% of US adults approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living, and 26% approve of his economic management overall. A majority, 65%, blame Trump's policies for persistently high costs. Among likely voters, Democrats lead Republicans by 11 percentage points in one poll and by 12 points in another. A survey also found 58% of Americans believe it is more important to elect a Congress that will act as a check on President Trump.

The timeline

As the November 3 midterm elections approach, Republican sentiment has shifted from "nervous to fatalistic," with many anticipating an "electoral disaster". This mood developed amid voter dissatisfaction with high fuel prices, which reached $8.99 per gallon in some areas and $24 in remote parts of Alaska, and broader economic concerns. Republicans are increasingly worried about losing seats and surrendering their narrow House majority. Analysts suggest it may be too late for President Trump to prevent a midterm disaster, with results likely "baked in".

What changed and for whom

Republican candidates in key states are actively distancing themselves from the administration's policies in their closing pitches. Some are breaking with President Trump on the war with Iran and a new diesel deal with Russia. Less than $1 of every $100 spent on television ads for Republican congressional candidates from September 9 to October 17 mentioned Trump. This contrasts sharply with earlier in the campaign cycle, when more than 70% of Republican broadcast ads mentioned Trump before dropping off dramatically after Labor Day.

What the subject has said publicly

President Donald Trump has been engaged in an intensive campaign, holding rallies in states such as South Carolina. He has asked voters to "pretend that he is on the ballot" to bolster turnout. Trump has defended the war with Iran, stating it would end soon and that fuel prices would decrease afterward. He also criticized opponents for focusing the election on affordability issues.

What we could not confirm

We could not confirm the specific strategies internal to individual Republican campaigns for distancing themselves from the President, beyond what their advertising spending indicates. We also could not confirm the exact number of Republican candidates who have publicly broken with the President on specific policies, only that "more republican candidates" are doing so.